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Chasing the nut flush draw: when the price is right

Texas Hold’em · example hand · 9 players · BlindsTwo small bets that two players must put in before the cards are dealt, so there is always something to win. The small blind is 1 chip and the big blind is 2 chips. of 1 and 2 chips · everyone starts with 200 chips

You raise with Ace-King of the same suit and miss the first three cards. Then the fourth card gives you four spades, one away from the best possible flush. Is it worth calling?

Your cards (dealer button)
All five shared cards

Ace-King, same suit. The lesson: Count the cards that would help you (your Cards that help you (outs)Cards still in the deck that would turn your hand into a likely winner. Example: with four hearts, the nine other hearts are your outs for a flush.), turn them into a rough chance, and compare that with the share of the pot you must put in.

Before the flop

Kai, a wild player, raises and two players call. Your hand (Ace-King, same suit) is strong enough to raise again against someone who raises this often.

  • Rosa🐢 Relaxedposts the small blind (1)
  • Dev📞 Calls a lotposts the big blind (2)
  • Marguerite🪨 Very carefulfolds
  • Otis🐢 Relaxedfolds
  • Kai🔥 Wildraises to 8
  • Bea📞 Calls a lotcalls 8
  • Jun🎯 Solidfolds
  • Walt🐢 Relaxedcalls 8
  • Youraise to 24
  • Rosa🐢 Relaxedfolds
  • Dev📞 Calls a lotfolds
  • Kai🔥 Wildcalls 16
  • Bea📞 Calls a lotcalls 16
  • Walt🐢 Relaxedfolds

You raise to 24Probably

Coach: Raise to 24. Ace-King, same suit is one of the best 2% of starting hands. That is strong enough to raise again after Kai (Wild).

The flop (3 shared cards)pot: 83 chips

You miss: just ace high. Kai bets and Bea calls. On price alone this is close: you need about a 24% chance and have about 25%. What tips it to a call: Kai bets lots of weak hands, and both players have only 104 chips left, so any later bet will be small next to this big pot. Folding would be a small mistake, not a big one.

What beats you?

  • You have ace high.
  • Best possible hand right now: seven-high straight.
  • 448 of the 1,081 hands another player could hold beat you: straight (16 ways), three of a kind (9 ways), two pair (27 ways).
  • 6 cards would help you (your outs): a 13% chance on the next card.
  • Kai🔥 Wildbets 72
  • Bea📞 Calls a lotcalls 72
  • Youcall 72

You call 72Clear

Coach: Call 72. You need at least a 24% chance to win, and yours is about 25% (counting the 6 cards that help you). Raising would mostly get called by better hands.

The turn (4th card)pot: 299 chips

The 3♠ gives you four spades: any spade on the last card makes the best possible flush (The nuts (best possible hand)The best hand anyone could have with the shared cards showing right now. If you have it, nobody can beat you at this moment.). With many cards that help you and a big pot, you need only a small chance to make calling worth it.

What beats you?

  • You have pair of threes.
  • Best possible hand right now: four threes.
  • 402 of the 1,035 hands another player could hold beat you: four of a kind (1 ways), full house (18 ways), straight (16 ways).
  • 15 cards would help you (your outs): a 33% chance on the next card.
  • Kai🔥 Wildbets 104 (all-in)
  • Bea📞 Calls a lotcalls 104 (all-in)
  • Youcall 104 (all-in)

You call 104 (all-in)Clear

Coach: Call 104. You need at least a 17% chance to win, and yours is about 29% (counting the 15 cards that help you). Raising would mostly get called by better hands.

The river (5th card)

The 2♠ gives you an ace-high flush: the best hand possible on this board.

No more betting: the players left have put in all their chips.

Result

You win 611 chips with an ace-high flush. You finish 411 chips up.

  • YouAce-high flush
  • KaiTwo pair, Nines and Threes
  • BeaTwo pair, Tens and Threes

Kai had two pair, nines and threes and Bea had two pair, tens and threes, but your flush beats both. A draw is only worth chasing when the price is right; here it was, and it paid off. It won’t always: you still miss most of the time.

The coach’s numbers are estimates against these computer players, worked out by dealing the rest of the hand thousands of times. The “what beats you” counts are exact.

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