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A small pair when a player who never bets suddenly bets: believe it

Texas Hold’em · example hand · 9 players · BlindsTwo small bets that two players must put in before the cards are dealt, so there is always something to win. The small blind is 1 chip and the big blind is 2 chips. of 1 and 2 chips · everyone starts with 200 chips

Everyone checks after the first three cards. Then a player who almost never bets suddenly bets on the fourth card (the turn). You have the smallest possible pair.

Your cards (middle seat)
All five shared cards

Ace-Two, same suit. The lesson: Passive players rarely bet without a real hand. When they suddenly do, weak pairs should usually fold.

Before the flop

Kai, a wild player, raises and Bea calls. Your hand (Ace-Two, same suit) plays well when many loose players are in a big pot, so the coach calls.

  • Marguerite🪨 Very carefulposts the small blind (1)
  • Otis🐢 Relaxedposts the big blind (2)
  • Kai🔥 Wildraises to 8
  • Bea📞 Calls a lotcalls 8
  • Jun🎯 Solidfolds
  • Walt🐢 Relaxedfolds
  • Youcall 8
  • Rosa🐢 Relaxedfolds
  • Dev📞 Calls a lotcalls 8
  • Marguerite🪨 Very carefulfolds
  • Otis🐢 Relaxedfolds

You call 8Probably

Coach: Call 8. Ace-Two, same suit is one of the best 14% of starting hands. Kai (Wild) raised to 8 chips. About the best 18% of hands should keep going, so calling is reasonable.

The flop (3 shared cards)pot: 35 chips

You have a pair of twos, the smallest pair possible here, with an ace as your side card. Against three opponents plenty of hands already beat you, and a bet would mostly get called by better hands. Everyone checks.

What beats you?

  • You have pair of twos.
  • Best possible hand right now: three kings.
  • 319 of the 1,081 hands another player could hold beat you: three of a kind (7 ways), two pair (21 ways), pair (291 ways).
  • 5 cards would help you (your outs): a 11% chance on the next card.
  • Kai🔥 Wildchecks
  • Bea📞 Calls a lotchecks
  • Youcheck
  • Dev📞 Calls a lotchecks

You checkProbably

Coach: Check. Your chance to win is about 21% against 3 players. If you bet, mostly better hands would call (you'd win about 25% of those). Checking is free and shows you the next card.

The turn (4th card)pot: 35 chips

Everyone checks to Dev, who calls a lot, and he bets. Players like Dev call a lot but rarely bet without something good. Bea calls. Compare the price with your chances in the coach box below: calling costs more than it’s worth.

What beats you?

  • You have pair of twos.
  • Best possible hand right now: three kings.
  • 421 of the 1,035 hands another player could hold beat you: three of a kind (10 ways), two pair (45 ways), pair (366 ways).
  • 5 cards would help you (your outs): a 11% chance on the next card.
  • Kai🔥 Wildchecks
  • Bea📞 Calls a lotchecks
  • Youcheck
  • Dev📞 Calls a lotbets 20
  • Kai🔥 Wildfolds
  • Bea📞 Calls a lotcalls 20
  • Youfold

You checkClear

Coach: Check. Your chance to win is about 18% against 3 players. If you bet, mostly better hands would call (you'd win about 20% of those). Checking is free and shows you the next card.

You foldClear

Coach: Fold. Calling 20 needs at least a 21% chance to win. Against the hands they probably have, yours is about 13%, even counting the 5 cards that help you.

The river (5th card)pot: 75 chips

You are out of the hand. Both players check.

  • Bea📞 Calls a lotchecks
  • Dev📞 Calls a lotchecks

Result

Dev wins 75 chips with three sixes. You finish 8 chips down.

  • DevThree Sixes
  • BeaKing high

Dev had 6♠ 6♦: the 6♣ on the turn gave him three sixes. When a player who usually just calls starts betting, it usually means exactly this.

The coach’s numbers are estimates against these computer players, worked out by dealing the rest of the hand thousands of times. The “what beats you” counts are exact.

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